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Prelims1 Lightweight

TJ Grant vs Carlo Prater

UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier ·EagleBank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
TJ Grant
Carlo Prater
73% 27%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
22-5
Career record
Δ 19 pp
32-18-1
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Grant: 68 sig / 3 TD · Prater: 27 sig / 0 TD
TJ Grant
Carlo Prater
48
Sig strikes landed
26
69
Sig strikes attempted
66
58
Total strikes landed
44
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
242s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

TJ Grant

22-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
L UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W1

Carlo Prater

"Neo"
32-18-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—