Main
Middleweight
Jason MacDonald vs Tom Lawlor
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier
·EagleBank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jason MacDonald
Tom Lawlor
58%
42%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
37
Age
Δ 8y
29
25-17
Career record
Δ 1 pp
10-7
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
MacDonald: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Lawlor: 5 sig / 0 TD
Jason MacDonald
Tom Lawlor
34
Sig strikes landed
29
53
Sig strikes attempted
54
52
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
112s
Control time
192s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jason MacDonald
"The Athlete"
25-17
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Tom Lawlor
"Filthy"
10-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—