Main
Lightweight
Donald Cerrone vs Jeremy Stephens
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier
·EagleBank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Jeremy Stephens
81%
19%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
36-18
Career record
Δ 12 pp
29-24
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cerrone: 87 sig / 1 TD ·
Stephens: 46 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Jeremy Stephens
56
Sig strikes landed
49
123
Sig strikes attempted
108
69
Total strikes landed
58
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
55s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
L1
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—