Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dennis Bermudez
Pablo Garza
61%
39%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 7"
73"
25
Age
Δ 3y
29
17-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
12-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bermudez: 45 sig / 8 TD ·
Garza: 27 sig / 0 TD
Dennis Bermudez
Pablo Garza
25
Sig strikes landed
38
82
Sig strikes attempted
78
34
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
107s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dennis Bermudez
"The Menace"
17-10
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
L1
Pablo Garza
"The Scarecrow"
12-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—