Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Danny Castillo
John Cholish
50%
50%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
33
Age
Δ 4y
28
18-10
Career record
Δ 11 pp
9-3
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Castillo: 52 sig / 1 TD ·
Cholish: 29 sig / 1 TD
Danny Castillo
John Cholish
31
Sig strikes landed
36
71
Sig strikes attempted
74
52
Total strikes landed
52
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
197s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
W1
John Cholish
9-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—