Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Roland Delorme
Nick Denis
48%
52%
Why
28
Age
Δ 0y
29
10-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
12-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Delorme: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Denis: 24 sig / 1 TD
Roland Delorme
Nick Denis
24
Sig strikes landed
21
56
Sig strikes attempted
53
31
Total strikes landed
27
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
78s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Roland Delorme
10-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
W1
Nick Denis
"The Ninja of Love"
12-3
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—