Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mike Massenzio
Karlos Vemola
29%
71%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
13-10
Career record
Δ 17 pp
17-6
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Massenzio: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Vemola: 16 sig / 2 TD
Mike Massenzio
Karlos Vemola
24
Sig strikes landed
28
45
Sig strikes attempted
54
41
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
155s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Massenzio
"The Master of Disaster"
13-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
Blue corner
L1
Karlos Vemola
17-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—