Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Louis Gaudinot
John Lineker
13%
87%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
28
Age
Δ 6y
22
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Gaudinot: 65 sig / 2 TD ·
Lineker: 96 sig / 0 TD
Louis Gaudinot
John Lineker
21
Sig strikes landed
42
60
Sig strikes attempted
80
29
Total strikes landed
64
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
69s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Louis Gaudinot
"Goodnight"
8-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22