Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
John Hathaway
Pascal Krauss
65%
35%
Why
25
Age
Δ 0y
25
18-2
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-2
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hathaway: 68 sig / 2 TD ·
Krauss: 33 sig / 1 TD
John Hathaway
Pascal Krauss
50
Sig strikes landed
48
112
Sig strikes attempted
110
78
Total strikes landed
64
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.8
4.3
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
170s
Control time
214s
Method
Decision
86%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Hathaway
"The Hitman"
18-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W1
Pascal Krauss
"Panzer"
12-2
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—