Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Pat Barry
Lavar Johnson
34%
66%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 8"
82"
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
9-7
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-10
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barry: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 39 sig / 0 TD
Pat Barry
Lavar Johnson
27
Sig strikes landed
48
64
Sig strikes attempted
105
26
Total strikes landed
63
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
43s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
75%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Pat Barry
"HD"
9-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
W1
Lavar Johnson
"Big"
19-10
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—