Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Michael Johnson
76%
24%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
27-11
Career record
Δ 15 pp
26-20
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ferguson: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 67 sig / 0 TD
Tony Ferguson
Michael Johnson
39
Sig strikes landed
37
108
Sig strikes attempted
96
53
Total strikes landed
41
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
55s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W1
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
26-20
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—