Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Rousimar Palhares
Alan Belcher
49%
51%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
20-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-8
W3
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Palhares: 0 sig / 1 TD ·
Belcher: 20 sig / 0 TD
Rousimar Palhares
Alan Belcher
15
Sig strikes landed
19
32
Sig strikes attempted
36
27
Total strikes landed
29
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
107s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Rousimar Palhares
"Toquinho"
20-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W2
Alan Belcher
"The Talent"
19-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—