Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Josh Koscheck
Johny Hendricks
40%
60%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
34
Age
Δ 6y
29
18-11
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-8
W2
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Koscheck: 33 sig / 1 TD ·
Hendricks: 55 sig / 2 TD
Josh Koscheck
Johny Hendricks
21
Sig strikes landed
28
67
Sig strikes attempted
68
38
Total strikes landed
39
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
142s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Josh Koscheck
18-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—