Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Nate Diaz
Jim Miller
45%
55%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
23-13
Career record
Δ 4 pp
40-19
W2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Diaz: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Miller: 25 sig / 1 TD
Nate Diaz
Jim Miller
44
Sig strikes landed
51
101
Sig strikes attempted
119
67
Total strikes landed
53
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
46s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
46%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nate Diaz
23-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Jim Miller
"A-10"
40-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—