Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Stephen Thompson
46%
54%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
27-19
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-9-1
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brown: 36 sig / 5 TD ·
Thompson: 67 sig / 0 TD
Matt Brown
Stephen Thompson
23
Sig strikes landed
27
50
Sig strikes attempted
59
33
Total strikes landed
32
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
63s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
27-19
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
Blue corner
W1
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
18-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—