Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brendan Schaub
Ben Rothwell
18%
82%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
10-6
Career record
Δ 10 pp
39-15
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Schaub: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Rothwell: 8 sig / 0 TD
Brendan Schaub
Ben Rothwell
28
Sig strikes landed
33
63
Sig strikes attempted
63
47
Total strikes landed
50
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brendan Schaub
"Big Brown"
10-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Ben Rothwell
39-15
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—