Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rory MacDonald
Che Mills
83%
17%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
23
Age
Δ 7y
30
20-4
Career record
Δ 20 pp
17-10
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
MacDonald: 47 sig / 2 TD ·
Mills: 6 sig / 0 TD
Rory MacDonald
Che Mills
22
Sig strikes landed
20
51
Sig strikes attempted
44
37
Total strikes landed
24
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.4
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
182s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
20-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Che Mills
"Beautiful"
17-10
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—