Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Miguel Torres
Michael McDonald
86%
14%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
31
Age
Δ 10y
21
45-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-4
W1
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Torres: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
McDonald: 16 sig / 0 TD
Miguel Torres
Michael McDonald
33
Sig strikes landed
36
80
Sig strikes attempted
84
50
Total strikes landed
39
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
120s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Miguel Torres
45-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
W3
Michael McDonald
"Mayday"
18-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—