Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mark Bocek
John Alessio
38%
62%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 2y
33
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bocek: 74 sig / 5 TD ·
Alessio: 33 sig / 0 TD
Mark Bocek
John Alessio
26
Sig strikes landed
30
60
Sig strikes attempted
58
54
Total strikes landed
54
3.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
7.3
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
328s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mark Bocek
13-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
John Alessio
"The Natural"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33