🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Rashad Evans
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Rashad Evans
94%
6%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 10"
75"
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
29-1
Career record
Δ 28 pp
20-8-1
W6
Current streak
W4
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Jones: 105 sig / 1 TD ·
Evans: 45 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Rashad Evans
67
Sig strikes landed
20
111
Sig strikes attempted
72
85
Total strikes landed
44
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.9
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
176s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
Blue corner
W4
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
20-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—