Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lumumba Sayers
Scott Smith
69%
31%
Why
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
7-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-12
W1
Current streak
L3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sayers: 10 sig / 2 TD ·
Smith: 2 sig / 0 TD
Lumumba Sayers
Scott Smith
33
Sig strikes landed
38
96
Sig strikes attempted
93
55
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
53s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Lumumba Sayers
7-5
Career record
Height
72"
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
Strikeforce Challengers 20
—
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henders…
—
Blue corner
L3
Scott Smith
"Hands of Steel"
18-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henders…
—
L
Strikeforce - Henderson vs. Bab…
—
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Werdum
—