Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Bristol Marunde
74%
26%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Souza: 46 sig / 6 TD ·
Marunde: 19 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Bristol Marunde
39
Sig strikes landed
35
96
Sig strikes attempted
82
68
Total strikes landed
50
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
248s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jacare Souza
26-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
Strikeforce - Barnett vs. Khari…
—
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Cyborg
—
W
Strikeforce - Houston
—
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—
Blue corner
Bristol Marunde
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30