Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Daley
Kazuo Misaki
84%
16%
Why
29
Age
Δ 7y
36
L2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Daley: 44 sig / 3 TD ·
Misaki: 43 sig / 1 TD
Paul Daley
Kazuo Misaki
31
Sig strikes landed
29
79
Sig strikes attempted
52
45
Total strikes landed
43
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Paul Daley
"Semtex"
39-16-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henders…
—
L
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley
—
W
Strikeforce - Henderson vs. Bab…
—
Blue corner
Kazuo Misaki
"Hitman"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36