Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Thomson
KJ Noons
74%
26%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
34
Age
Δ 4y
29
23-9
Career record
Δ 11 pp
14-9
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thomson: 41 sig / 4 TD ·
Noons: 29 sig / 0 TD
Josh Thomson
KJ Noons
44
Sig strikes landed
33
111
Sig strikes attempted
102
56
Total strikes landed
44
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.9
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
206s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
23-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
W
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Werdum
—
Blue corner
W1
KJ Noons
"King"
14-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
Strikeforce - Melendez vs. Masv…
—
L
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
—
L
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
W
Strikeforce - Houston
—
W
Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—