Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Dennis Siver
Diego Nunes
54%
46%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
23-12
Career record
Δ 8 pp
20-7
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Siver: 68 sig / 0 TD ·
Nunes: 49 sig / 0 TD
Dennis Siver
Diego Nunes
46
Sig strikes landed
49
124
Sig strikes attempted
120
60
Total strikes landed
57
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
80s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dennis Siver
23-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
W1
Diego Nunes
"The Gun"
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—