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Main Welterweight

Paulo Thiago vs Siyar Bahadurzada

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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Paulo Thiago
Siyar Bahadurzada
38% 62%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Thiago: 0 sig / 0 TD · Bahadurzada: 3 sig / 0 TD
Paulo Thiago
Siyar Bahadurzada
25
Sig strikes landed
33
64
Sig strikes attempted
63
42
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
125s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Paulo Thiago

19-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner

Siyar Bahadurzada

"The Great"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28