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Francis Carmont vs Magnus Cedenblad

UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva ·Ericsson Globe
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Francis Carmont
Magnus Cedenblad
65% 35%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Carmont: 28 sig / 2 TD · Cedenblad: 11 sig / 0 TD
Francis Carmont
Magnus Cedenblad
45
Sig strikes landed
30
84
Sig strikes attempted
77
65
Total strikes landed
47
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
181s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Francis Carmont

"Limitless"
26-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner

Magnus Cedenblad

"Jycken"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30