Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Papy Abedi
James Head
47%
53%
Why
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
10-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
9-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Abedi: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Head: 21 sig / 0 TD
Papy Abedi
James Head
28
Sig strikes landed
36
54
Sig strikes attempted
61
44
Total strikes landed
46
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
137s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Papy Abedi
"Makambo"
10-5
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
Blue corner
L1
James Head
9-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—