Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brad Pickett
Damacio Page
57%
43%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
25-15
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-11
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pickett: 36 sig / 4 TD ·
Page: 23 sig / 1 TD
Brad Pickett
Damacio Page
27
Sig strikes landed
38
81
Sig strikes attempted
81
45
Total strikes landed
48
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
32s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
25-15
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
Blue corner
L1
Damacio Page
"The Angel of Death"
19-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—