Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brian Stann
Alessio Sakara
57%
43%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
12-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
19-12
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Stann: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Sakara: 7 sig / 0 TD
Brian Stann
Alessio Sakara
25
Sig strikes landed
30
57
Sig strikes attempted
66
37
Total strikes landed
39
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
91s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brian Stann
"All American"
12-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
L1
Alessio Sakara
"Legionarius"
19-12
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—