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Alexander Gustafsson vs Thiago Silva

UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva ·Ericsson Globe
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Alexander Gustafsson
Thiago Silva
64% 36%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
19-8
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-6
W4
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gustafsson: 76 sig / 1 TD · Silva: 38 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Gustafsson
Thiago Silva
35
Sig strikes landed
21
92
Sig strikes attempted
50
49
Total strikes landed
31
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
77s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W4

Alexander Gustafsson

"The Mauler"
19-8
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
L UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
L1

Thiago Silva

19-6 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
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