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TJ Dillashaw vs Walel Watson

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger ·Omaha Civic Auditorium
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
TJ Dillashaw
Walel Watson
71% 29%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 8"
75"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
18-6
Career record
Δ 19 pp
14-11
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dillashaw: 85 sig / 3 TD · Watson: 11 sig / 0 TD
TJ Dillashaw
Walel Watson
47
Sig strikes landed
33
152
Sig strikes attempted
96
45
Total strikes landed
42
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.4
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
33s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

TJ Dillashaw

18-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
L1

Walel Watson

"The Gazelle"
14-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—