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Stipe Miocic vs Philip De Fries

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger ·Omaha Civic Auditorium
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Stipe Miocic
Philip De Fries
73% 27%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
21-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
13-6
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Miocic: 8 sig / 0 TD · De Fries: 7 sig / 0 TD
Stipe Miocic
Philip De Fries
27
Sig strikes landed
19
45
Sig strikes attempted
44
55
Total strikes landed
41
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
195s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Stipe Miocic

21-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
Blue corner
W1

Philip De Fries

13-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
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