Prelims1
Featherweight
Jonathan Brookins vs Vagner Rocha
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger
·Omaha Civic Auditorium
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jonathan Brookins
Vagner Rocha
52%
48%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
26
Age
Δ 3y
30
16-11
Career record
Δ 20 pp
15-4
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brookins: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Rocha: 7 sig / 0 TD
Jonathan Brookins
Vagner Rocha
30
Sig strikes landed
32
62
Sig strikes attempted
81
55
Total strikes landed
55
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
146s
Control time
181s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jonathan Brookins
16-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
W1
Vagner Rocha
"Ceara"
15-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—