Main
Middleweight
Aaron Simpson vs Ronny Markes
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger
·Omaha Civic Auditorium
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aaron Simpson
Ronny Markes
20%
80%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
38
Age
Δ 14y
24
13-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-5
W3
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Simpson: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Markes: 62 sig / 2 TD
Aaron Simpson
Ronny Markes
39
Sig strikes landed
40
66
Sig strikes attempted
93
57
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.0
4.6
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.50
174s
Control time
272s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Aaron Simpson
"A-Train"
13-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ronny Markes
18-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—