Main
Heavyweight
Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger
·Omaha Civic Auditorium
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Dave Herman
68%
32%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 8"
77"
24
Age
Δ 3y
27
34-13
Career record
Δ 7 pp
23-6
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Struve: 47 sig / 1 TD ·
Herman: 51 sig / 0 TD
Stefan Struve
Dave Herman
30
Sig strikes landed
41
79
Sig strikes attempted
86
44
Total strikes landed
50
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
39s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
34-13
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
W1
Dave Herman
23-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—