Main
Welterweight
Diego Sanchez vs Jake Ellenberger
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger
·Omaha Civic Auditorium
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Diego Sanchez
Jake Ellenberger
55%
45%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
32-13
Career record
Δ 3 pp
32-15
W2
Current streak
W5
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sanchez: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Ellenberger: 62 sig / 2 TD
Diego Sanchez
Jake Ellenberger
26
Sig strikes landed
34
72
Sig strikes attempted
84
51
Total strikes landed
44
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.7
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
90s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
32-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W5
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
32-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—