Prelims1
Featherweight
Mackens Semerzier vs Daniel Pineda
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
·Qudos Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mackens Semerzier
Daniel Pineda
36%
64%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
31
Age
Δ 5y
27
8-4
Career record
Δ 4 pp
29-17
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Semerzier: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Pineda: 14 sig / 0 TD
Mackens Semerzier
Daniel Pineda
8
Sig strikes landed
12
22
Sig strikes attempted
22
20
Total strikes landed
37
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.1
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
232s
Control time
338s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
59%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mackens Semerzier
"Da Menace"
8-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
W1
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
29-17
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—