Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
TJ Waldburger
Jake Hecht
65%
35%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
17-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
12-4
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Waldburger: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Hecht: 2 sig / 0 TD
TJ Waldburger
Jake Hecht
22
Sig strikes landed
19
40
Sig strikes attempted
29
38
Total strikes landed
26
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
183s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
53%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
TJ Waldburger
17-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jake Hecht
"Hitman"
12-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—