Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Kyle Noke
Andrew Craig
64%
36%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Noke: 36 sig / 3 TD ·
Craig: 36 sig / 1 TD
Kyle Noke
Andrew Craig
30
Sig strikes landed
18
54
Sig strikes attempted
36
48
Total strikes landed
35
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kyle Noke
22-11-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
Andrew Craig
"Highlight"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26