Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
James Te Huna vs Aaron Rosa
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
·Qudos Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
James Te Huna
Aaron Rosa
47%
53%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
30
Age
Δ 2y
29
17-9
Career record
Δ 11 pp
19-6
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Te Huna: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Rosa: 0 sig / 0 TD
James Te Huna
Aaron Rosa
39
Sig strikes landed
33
84
Sig strikes attempted
71
53
Total strikes landed
49
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
6.1
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
225s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
James Te Huna
17-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W1
Aaron Rosa
19-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—