Back to UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Prelims1 Welterweight

Matt Brown vs Chris Cope

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit ·Mandalay Bay Events Center

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Chris Cope
62% 38%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
26-20
Career record
Δ 5 pp
8-5
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Brown: 48 sig / 1 TD · Cope: 20 sig / 0 TD
Matt Brown
Chris Cope
33
Sig strikes landed
26
66
Sig strikes attempted
74
51
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
106s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Matt Brown

"The Immortal"
26-20
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
W UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
L UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
L UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
L UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
Blue corner
L1

Chris Cope

"C-Murder"
8-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…