Back to UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Prelims1 Welterweight

Matthew Riddle vs Henry Martinez

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Matthew Riddle
Henry Martinez
68% 32%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 7"
69"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
L2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Riddle: 74 sig / 2 TD · Martinez: 67 sig / 0 TD
Matthew Riddle
Henry Martinez
39
Sig strikes landed
37
115
Sig strikes attempted
84
63
Total strikes landed
55
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
204s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Matthew Riddle

"Deep Waters"
8-4 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
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L UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
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W UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
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W UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
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Blue corner

Henry Martinez

"Sicario"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29