Prelims1
Bantamweight
Alex Caceres vs Edwin Figueroa
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Edwin Figueroa
61%
39%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
22-15
Career record
Δ 7 pp
10-5
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Caceres: 55 sig / 1 TD ·
Figueroa: 41 sig / 0 TD
Alex Caceres
Edwin Figueroa
41
Sig strikes landed
33
80
Sig strikes attempted
65
57
Total strikes landed
54
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
112s
Control time
237s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
W1
Edwin Figueroa
"El Feroz"
10-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—