Prelims1
Featherweight
Dustin Poirier vs Max Holloway
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Max Holloway
59%
41%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
23
Age
Δ 3y
20
W3
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Poirier: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Holloway: 11 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Max Holloway
44
Sig strikes landed
32
99
Sig strikes attempted
85
72
Total strikes landed
55
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
199s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
Blue corner
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20