Back to UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Prelims2 Middleweight

Rafael Natal vs Michael Kuiper

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Rafael Natal
Michael Kuiper
52% 48%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
29
Age
Δ 6y
23
W1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Natal: 36 sig / 6 TD · Kuiper: 30 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Natal
Michael Kuiper
41
Sig strikes landed
41
96
Sig strikes attempted
88
57
Total strikes landed
56
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
112s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Rafael Natal

"Sapo"
22-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 3 fights · 1-1
Last 3
W UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
D UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
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Blue corner

Michael Kuiper

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23