Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ed Herman
Clifford Starks
57%
43%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
28-16
Career record
Δ 19 pp
14-3
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Herman: 28 sig / 2 TD ·
Starks: 16 sig / 0 TD
Ed Herman
Clifford Starks
27
Sig strikes landed
15
61
Sig strikes attempted
57
35
Total strikes landed
35
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
83s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
40%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
28-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W1
Clifford Starks
14-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—