Main
Bantamweight
Renan Barao vs Scott Jorgensen
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Renan Barao
Scott Jorgensen
95%
5%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
35-9
Career record
Δ 22 pp
16-12
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barao: 104 sig / 0 TD ·
Jorgensen: 73 sig / 0 TD
Renan Barao
Scott Jorgensen
38
Sig strikes landed
27
99
Sig strikes attempted
72
60
Total strikes landed
39
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
146s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
35-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
Blue corner
W2
Scott Jorgensen
"Young Guns"
16-12
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—