Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Roy Nelson
Fabricio Werdum
38%
62%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
36
Age
Δ 1y
34
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nelson: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Werdum: 91 sig / 0 TD
Roy Nelson
Fabricio Werdum
27
Sig strikes landed
38
57
Sig strikes attempted
76
44
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
145s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
23-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35