🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Nick Diaz vs Carlos Condit
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Nick Diaz
Carlos Condit
62%
38%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
28
Age
Δ 1y
28
27-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
33-14
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Diaz: 105 sig / 1 TD ·
Condit: 151 sig / 0 TD
Nick Diaz
Carlos Condit
48
Sig strikes landed
85
83
Sig strikes attempted
206
101
Total strikes landed
95
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
285s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nick Diaz
27-10
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W3
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
33-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—